Recently, iiMedia Research released the “2021-2022 Global Electronic Cigarette Industry Development Trend Special Research Report” (hereinafter referred to as the report). The report shows that in the past three years, the global e-cigarette retail scale has maintained a rapid growth trend. Made in China leads the global technological innovation of electronic cigarettes and sells well in more than 200 countries and regions.
The study shows that the global demand for e-cigarette harm reduction is obvious, and the demand of smokers to quit smoking is becoming stronger.
Global e-cigarette supervision is becoming more standardized, HNB has become the main development direction of developed countries in the United States and Japan
According to the research of the report, according to the general standards of the international market, electronic cigarette products are generally divided into two main directions: atomized electronic cigarettes and HNB (heating not burning). However, China’s definition of electronic cigarettes mainly includes two categories: atomized electronic cigarettes and solid electronic cigarettes. Tobacco products such as heated cigarettes directly manufactured by tobacco processing are included in cigarette management and do not belong to electronic cigarettes. Major countries and regions in the world, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea have issued clear policy guidelines and regulatory measures for electronic cigarettes.
In terms of market size, the retail scale of the global vaping electronic cigarette industry will grow at a compound growth rate of 18.6% from 2018 to 2021, and the retail scale will reach US$42.44 billion in 2022. The global HNB industry retail scale will grow at a compound growth rate of 58.4% from 2018 to 2021, and the retail scale is expected to reach US$31.37 billion in 2022.
The level of support and development stage of HNB products varies from country to country. The most mature country is Japan, where 30% of smokers have completed the conversion to HNB products. Tobacco giant Philip Morris International officially announced that it will stop selling cigarettes in Japan within 10 years. As of the end of 2020, the total number of IQOS (Philip Morris International HNB brand) users worldwide was approximately 17.6 million, of which 12.7 million users had completely switched to IQOS and successfully quit smoking.
Traditional tobacco consumption generally requires smoking cessation, and harm reduction is the core demand of tobacco evolution
The report shows that more than 90% of Chinese traditional tobacco consumers have thought of quitting smoking, 77.9% have tried it, and only 23.8% have successfully quit smoking.
Survey data shows that over 70% of Chinese cigarette consumers understand and are interested in e-cigarettes. Consumers are most interested in the adjuvant effect of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation (74.6%). 83.0% of Chinese e-cigarette consumers believed that e-cigarettes were helpful in reducing cigarette dependence.
However, the research report also pointed out that consumers have a relatively uniform understanding of e-cigarettes in replacing cigarettes or reducing cigarette dependence. Nearly half of consumers believe that its harm may be the same or higher than that of cigarettes, which is related to the irregular development of the domestic e-cigarette industry. With the release of national standards and the gradual strengthening of supervision, the standards and cognition of e-cigarette products will be unified.
My country’s electronic cigarette export strong technology leads the world to dominate
Data shows that the market size of China’s electronic cigarette industry continues to grow. The domestic sales market size in 2021 is 14.50 billion yuan. It is expected that the growth rate will be 76.0% in 2022, and the market size will reach 25.52 billion yuan. The export market of China’s electronic cigarette industry is huge, with exports reaching 101.50 billion yuan in 2021. It is expected that the growth rate will be 63.4% in 2022, and the market size will reach 165.88 billion yuan. As of 2021, Chinese enterprises will account for more than 95% of the global electronic atomization production capacity, and they will be sold to more than 200 countries and regions.
According to the IMS model, the potential market size of China’s e-cigarette segments is estimated. With the gradual improvement of policies on the regulation of the e-cigarette market, it is expected that the penetration rate of solid e-cigarettes in China will reach 3%-5% in 2025 (the penetration rate of HNB will reach 15%). -25%, of which solid electronic cigarettes account for about 20%), the potential market size is about 53.1 billion-88.5 billion yuan, the penetration rate of atomized electronic cigarettes is 4%-8%, and the potential market size is about 39.6 billion-79.2 billion yuan Yuan.
The research also shows that China has an advantage in the global e-cigarette industry, and Chinese manufacturing promotes the development of the industry through technological innovation.
The standardization of my country’s electronic cigarette industry needs to be improved, and the general trend of legalization and standardization
The remaining domestic e-cigarette enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized workshops, and there are supervision blind spots in all aspects of production and operation, which cannot guarantee the experience of smokers, and their impact on the environment and health cannot be assessed.
Since 2021, my country has successively issued and improved the relevant national standards and management methods for electronic cigarettes, clarified that electronic cigarettes are under the management of the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau, characterized electronic cigarettes as new tobacco products, and clarified the classification of atomized electronic cigarettes and solid electronic cigarettes. The production and operation of the tobacco industry have become more standardized.
